In an economic context marked by a health and economic crisis generating unprecedented changes, it is more necessary than ever to have (and therefore create) tools with which to monitor the state of companies, sectors, regions and even the economy as a whole.
To this end, and following the examples of what is done today in most advanced economies, Euros / Agency Africa – a public affairs, influence and strategic communication agency – has partnered with Insightek – a firm specializing in market research – to launch the quarterly CAM index, measuring the confidence of the Moroccan business community in their current and medium-term economic activity.
The purpose of the CAM index is to provide financial markets and decision-makers, both public and private, with a comprehensive monitoring, evaluating, steering and decision-making tool.
An index with a base of 100, the results can vary from 0 (the confidence of all economic decision-makers in the state of their current and forecast activity is pessimistic) to 200 (the confidence of all economic decision-makers in the state of their current and forecast activity is optimistic).
As of the 2nd quarter of 2020, the CAM index (aggregated index of the current situation and 6-month outlook) is 40.8.
On their current situation, economic decision-makers have a very unfavorable assessment (25.0).
They are, however, less pessimistic about their 6-month outlook (58.6): while Moroccan companies have suffered greatly from the economic blockage caused by the COVID pandemic and do not yet see the end of the tunnel, the gradual easing of containment offers them a glimmer of hope.
These figures can be compared with their German counterpart, the IFO Business Climate Index, which uses the same evaluation methodology and reached an all-time historical low of 74.3 in April 2020. Described by Clemens Fuest, the president of the IFO Institute, as the symbol of “a German economy in a state of shock”, it reveals how worried Moroccan decision-makers seem to be about the crisis.
Finally, this score also reflects GDP growth predictions for the period, with Bank Al Maghrib (the Moroccan Central Bank) announcing a 5.2% contraction of the country’s GDP in 2020, the biggest contraction since 1996.
Using a rigorous methodology based on the German IFO Business Climate Index, the CAM Index is built upon the responses to quarterly surveys of companies representing all sectors of economic activity in Morocco.
Companies are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation and their prospects for the next six months:
Responses are weighted so as to accurately reflect each sector’s size in Morocco’s GDP and then aggregated.
The difference between the percentage of “increasing” and “decreasing” answers is then calculated so as to give the state of the current situation and future. Firms that rated their situation as “stable” are considered “neutral” and therefore do not affect the results of the assessment of the situation of firms.
The business climate is a weighted and normalized average of the state of the current situation and its future.