SUMMARY
The PP’s victory in the recent regional and local elections has boosted its momentum, while the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) has struggled to maintain its support. The PP’s debate performance this week has also been seen as a major boost, with party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo emerging as the clear winner.
While the PP’s alliance with far-right Vox has raised some concerns, it does not appear to be damaging the party’s electoral prospects. Feijóo has insisted that he wants to form a “sufficient majority” that allows him to govern without Vox, but it seems almost impossible to obtain a majority to govern without a coalition with this party.
The outcome of the elections will have significant implications for the future of Spain. Sanchez’s government achieved positive results on the economic front, reinforcing the PSOE credibility: Spain has one of the most dynamic growth rates in the eurozone (2.3% this year according the Bank of Spain), with inflation down to 1.9%, a sustained rate of job creation and tax revenues that are helping to reduce public debt. If the PP wins, it will be able to implement an agenda not so far removed from the PSOE. Feijoo intends to keep the 2022 labor law reform that he initially wanted to repeal. The main changes should come in the energy sector, with the end of the “Iberian mechanism”, capping gas prices. A PSOE victory would mean more of the same for Spain, with the party likely to continue its current policies.
The election is likely to be very close, and the outcome will depend on a number of factors, including voter turnout and the performance of the smaller parties.
- The PP’s victory in the regional and local elections was seen as a rebuke to the PSOE, which had been in power for eight years.
- The PP’s alliance with Vox has been controversial, with some critics arguing that it legitimizes the far-right party.
- The PSOE has been criticized for forming alliances with Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties. In particular, Sanchez pardoned the Catalan independentista responsible for the 2017 independence referendum. The Spanish population has been particularly critical of these choices.
- The outcome of the election will have implications for Spain’s relationship with the European Union.
OUR TAKE
Pedro Sánchez’s chances of reelection are increasingly low.
The Prime Minister’s decision to call a snap election was seen as an attempt to “clarify” the will of Spaniards and their view of PP-Vox alliances. However, the PP has been on the defensive at the start of the campaign, and Sánchez’s performance in the candidates debate has been erratic and overly aggressive. This has demoralized the Socialists, and polls show that the PP is strengthening while the PSOE is declining.
The PP wants to avoid a government with Vox although this may seem difficult to realize. Since his election as PP leader in April 2022, Feijóo has successfully deployed a strategy based on moderation, which has allowed the party to consistently lead voting intention polls for the first time in years. Feijóo has constantly alluded to Vox in his speeches, but not exactly to praise it, but rather to situate it as a kind of indirect partner of Sánchez that must be avoided at the polls.
Most Spaniards would prefer a minority PP government without reliance on Vox. This explains Feijóo’s insistence on calling for a “sufficient majority” that allows him to surpass the psychological barrier of 150 seats. If this is the case, Vox will lack the sufficient bandwidth to request to enter the government.
It is still possible that the PP wins with a considerable margin over the Socialists, but Vox’s current stagnation results in an alternative left-wing parliamentary majority. In this case, Sánchez would get a chance at re-election, but he would probably not be able to avoid alliances with Basque and Catalan nationalists and Bildu, the political branch of terrorist group ETA. Similarly, Sanchez is counting heavily on the Sumar party, created this year by his Labour Minister, Yolanda Díaz. This party would make it possible to form a strong left-wing coalition, bringing together all the small left-wing and far-left parties behind the PSOE.
However, 71% of Spaniards believe that Feijóo will be Spain’s new Prime Minister. This could very well lead to a bandwagon effect that results in a larger PP victory than projected.
In conclusion, Pedro Sánchez’s chances of reelection are increasingly low. The PP is the clear favorite to win the snap election.
Right-wing voters are more mobilized than left-wing voters.
The results of the May regional and local elections, as well as preliminary postal vote registrations, show that right-wing voters are more likely to vote than left-wing voters. This is a trend that has been seen in recent elections in Spain, and it is likely to continue in the upcoming snap election.
The PSOE is worried about voter abstention.
The PSOE is concerned that a significant number of its voters will abstain from voting in the upcoming election. This is because the election is being held in the middle of summer, when many people are on vacation. The PSOE is also worried that the recent presidential debate has demoralized its supporters.
Vote transfers from the PSOE and Vox to the PP are increasing.
In recent weeks, there have been increasing transfers of votes from the PSOE and Vox to the PP. This is due to a number of factors, including the unpopularity of the PSOE government and the rise of the far-right Vox party.
Postal voting is expected to reach a historic high.
Due to the date of the election, many Spaniards will be unable to vote in person. This is why postal voting is expected to reach a historic high. It is estimated that more than 2.5 million people will vote by mail in the upcoming election.
Official results will be available on the night of 23 July.
The official results of the election will be available on the night of 23 July. Euros / Agency Group will share an analysis of the likeliest government formations as well as what to expect from a policy standpoint.
In conclusion, the upcoming snap election in Spain is shaping up to be a close race. The PP is the favorite to win, but the PSOE is not out of the race yet. The outcome of the election will depend on a number of factors, including voter turnout and the performance of the smaller parties.