The iCAM index (Business Climate Index Morocco) by Euros / Agency Group and Insightek is an index measuring quarterly the confidence of the Moroccan business community in the current activity of their companies, as well as their prospects over the next 6 months. For this edition, nearly 1,200 Moroccan business leaders of various sizes and representing all sectors of activity were interviewed. With a response rate of 25% and representing 80% of sectors of activity, the results reflect an economy that is slowly recovering, against a backdrop of uncertainties surrounding the outlook and related to the evolution of the pandemic.
RESULTS OF THE ICAM Q3 2020 INDEX
Base index 100, the results can vary from 0 (the confidence of all economic decision-makers in the state of their current and forecast activity is pessimistic) to 200 (the confidence of all economic decision-makers in the state of their current and forecast activity is optimistic).
In Q3 2020, the iCAM index (aggregate index of the current situation and 6-month outlook) is 82.5. It reflects a market sentiment of economic decision-makers that is improving compared to Q2 2020 (40.8), despite a resurgence of the pandemic.
Economic decision-makers feel that the current situation has clearly improved compared to the 2nd quarter of 2020 following the deconfinement and recovery of economic activity in the kingdom (index 82.1 in the 3rd quarter of 2020 compared to 25.0 in the 2nd quarter of 2020).
The increase in business confidence is less evident when asked about their 6-month outlook (index 82.8 in Q3 2020 compared to 58.6 in Q2 2020): while the gradual deconfinement has allowed a recovery in activity, the recovery is slower than expected and uncertainties remain high as to the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on the outlook. Economic decision-makers are also awaiting the effective implementation of the government recovery plan.
The current rebound in market sentiment, with an index close to the median, nevertheless remains below the international situation. Especially when compared with its German counterpart, the IFO Index, using the same evaluation methodology, which reached an all-time low of 74.3 in April 2020 and is now hovering around 95. The iCAM score of 82.5 reflects a still cautious Moroccan economy.
Finally, this market sentiment is less pessimistic than the forecast for overall economic contraction in 2020. The fourth quarter will confirm or reverse this trend in view of the resurgence of the pandemic.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ICAM INDEX
In an economic context marked by a health and economic crisis generating unprecedented changes, it is more necessary than ever to implement tools to monitor the health of companies, sectors, regions and the economy as a whole.
To this end, and following the example of what is done today in most advanced economies, the public affairs, influence and strategic communication agency Euros / Agency Africa, headed by Sarah Mezouar, has joined forces with Insightek, a firm specializing in market research and headed by Nabil Abouzaid, to launch in June 2020 the quarterly index iCAM (Business Climate Index Morocco), measuring the confidence of the Moroccan business community in their current and medium-term activity.
The purpose of this index is to provide decision-makers, both private and public, and financial markets, on a quarterly basis, with a tool for monitoring, evaluation, steering and decision-making.
TECHNICAL NOTE: METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATING THE ICAM INDEX
Using a rigorous methodology inspired by that of the German IFO Business Climate Index, the iCAM index is based on quarterly responses to surveys of companies in all sectors of activity in Morocco.
Firms are asked to provide their assessment of the current business situation and their prospects for the next six months:
The measurement of the current situation is based on two criteria and is measured in comparison to the previous quarter : (1) current activity compared to the previous quarter and (2) order backlog compared to the previous quarter. Companies can qualify them as “increasing”, “stable” or “decreasing”.
The measure of activity forecasts for the next six months is based on two criteria and is measured in comparison to the current half year: (1) forecast activity in comparison to the current half year and (2) forecast investments in comparison to the current half year. They can be qualified as “increasing”, “stable” or “decreasing”.
Responses are weighted according to the importance of the sector in which the company operates.